THE U.S. NOW IMPORTS 60 PERCENT OF ITS OIL, AND CONSUMES 25 PERCENT OF THE WORLD'S OIL--AT A RATE OF 21 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY.
Peak Oil
“Although oil extraction and refining accounts for a relatively small share—perhaps 5 percent—of the nation’s gross domestic product, the availability of vast quantities of relatively inexpensive petroleum is indispensable to a whole host of other industries, including automobile manufacture, road and highway construction, airlines, petrochemicals, agriculture, tourism, and suburban commerce. Taken together, these sectors make up the heart of the American economy, and without cheap oil they—and the way of life they make possible—could hardly survive.”
-Michael Klare-
“One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over.”
-Chevron Oil Company-
PEAK OIL IN A NUTSHELL
The term “peak oil” refers to the point at which world oil supplies reach maximum production and then begin a terminal decline. Oil is a finite resource, which means there is only so much of it in the Earth. For a long time now, since the 19th century we have been able to produce and refine more and more oil, year after year. However, this situation is about to change. Practically all geologists expect oil production to “peak” within the next 20 years. Many believe we will likely peak within the next five, and some believe we have peaked already.
Though experts disagree as to when the global supply of oil will reach “peak,”
whether we will peak is not disputed. Many expect peak to occur before 2010.
It is worth stressing that peak oil doesn’t mean we’re “running out.” When we’ve reached peak, roughly half of the world’s oil will still be underground and untapped. The point is not that we’re running out. The point is that we are reaching a historical period in time, after which oil production will no longer continue to perpetually increase, but instead begin a steady decline; the remaining oil will be considerably more difficult to recover and refine. In short, we’re not running out of oil. We are running out of cheap, readily available oil.
PEAK OIL AND OUR SOCIAL INFRASTURCTURE
We have built our entire social and physical infrastructure on the assumption that we will always have access to cheap and readily available fossil fuels (oil being chief among these). This assumption will prove to be a disastrous one. James Howard Kunstler has remarked that the high-energy suburban strip-mall model of development that has crept across the American landscape in the past 50 years represents “the greatest misallocation of resources in human history.” Commuters are reliant upon cheap unleaded gasoline to take them to work and back. Industrial agriculture uses around 10 calories of fossil fuels to produce one calorie of edible food. The average food product is shipped 1,500 miles from farm to plate. These are just two statistics which speak to the dependence of modern industrial societies on the availability of cheap oil.
Perhaps the most alarming consequence of peak oil will be to national economies. Modern industrial economies are predicated upon infinite growth—they need to continually grow in order to survive and without growth they could not survive. The central question then is: how will economies that are required to grow in order to survive and which are highly dependent upon massive fossil fuel inputs survive during an unprecedented era of declining energy? Many believe that peak oil could lead to the wholesale disruption and possible collapse of the economy.
While this information can be overwhelming and even daunting, don't be discouraged! There is much you and your community can do to prepare for this possibly very serious crisis. To learn more about opportunities to act now, visit our SOLUTIONS and OPOA ACTION! pages.
RESOURCES:
Association for the Study of Peak Oil
To check out more resources on peak oil and other topics, see our resource page.
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